Prediction Space Weather Using an Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo CMEs

TL;DR

This paper uses an asymmetric cone model to improve predictions of halo CME space weather effects by accurately estimating their parameters and correlating these with geomagnetic storm severity.

Contribution

The study applies a novel asymmetric cone model to halo CMEs to better predict their speed, width, and source location, enhancing space weather forecasting accuracy.

Findings

Strong correlation between CME space speeds and travel times.

CME parameters relate to geomagnetic disturbance magnitudes.

Model improves space weather prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are responsible of the most severe geomagnetic storms. A prediction of their geoeffectiveness and travel time to Earth's vicinity is crucial to forecast space weather. Unfortunately coronagraphic observations are subjected to projection effects and do not provide true characteristics of CMEs. Recently, Michalek (2006, {\it Solar Phys.}, {\bf237}, 101) developed an asymmetric cone model to obtain the space speed, width and source location of HCMEs. We applied this technique to obtain the parameters of all front-sided HCMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO experiment during a period from the beginning of 2001 until the end of 2002 (solar cycle 23). These parameters were applied for the space weather forecast. Our study determined that the space speeds are strongly correlated with the travel times of HCMEs within Earth's vicinity and with the magnitudes related to geomagnetic disturbances.