Masses for the Local Group and the Milky Way

TL;DR

This paper calibrates timing argument mass estimators for the Local Group and Milky Way using Millennium Simulation data, providing updated mass estimates and confidence intervals with quantified uncertainties.

Contribution

It introduces a calibration of timing argument estimators with simulation data, improving mass estimates of the Local Group and Milky Way with quantified error distributions.

Findings

Median Local Group mass estimate: 5.27 x 10^12 solar masses.

Milky Way virial mass estimate: 2.43 x 10^12 solar masses.

95% lower confidence limit for Local Group: 1.81 x 10^12 solar masses.

Abstract

We use the very large Millennium Simulation of the concordance $\Lambda$CDM cosmogony to calibrate the bias and error distribution of Timing Argument estimators of the masses of the Local Group and of the Milky Way. From a large number of isolated spiral-spiral pairs similar to the Milky Way/Andromeda system, we find the interquartile range of the ratio of timing mass to true mass to be a factor of 1.8, while the 5% and 95% points of the distribution of this ratio are separated by a factor of 5.7. Here we define true mass as the sum of the ``virial'' masses $M_{200}$ of the two dominant galaxies. For current best values of the distance and approach velocity of Andromeda this leads to a median likelihood estimate of the true mass of the Local Group of $5.27\times 10^{12}\msun$, or $\log M_{LG}/M_\odot = 12.72$, with an interquartile range of $[12.58, 12.83]$ and a 5% to 95% range of $[12.26, 13.01]$. Thus a 95% lower confidence limit on the true mass of the Local Group is $1.81\times 10^{12}\msun$. A timing estimate of the Milky Way's mass based on the large recession velocity observed for the distant satellite Leo I works equally well, although with larger systematic uncertainties. It gives an estimated virial mass for the Milky Way of $2.43 \times 10^{12}\msun$ with a 95% lower confidence limit of $0.80 \times 10^{12}\msun$.