Using the QBO to predict the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S

TL;DR

This study investigates whether the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can predict hurricane frequency in the Atlantic and finds it offers little predictive value over simple historical averages on five-year scales.

Contribution

The paper provides an empirical analysis showing the QBO is not a useful predictor for Atlantic hurricane numbers, challenging previous assumptions about its predictive power.

Findings

QBO does not significantly influence hurricane counts

No difference in hurricane numbers following easterly or westerly QBO phases

Using mean hurricane counts outperforms QBO-based predictions

Abstract

A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here.