A Bayesian periodogram finds evidence for three planets in HD 11964

TL;DR

A Bayesian multi-planet periodogram analysis of radial velocity data for HD 11964 strongly supports the existence of three planets, demonstrating the method's effectiveness in exoplanet detection.

Contribution

The paper introduces a Bayesian multi-planet periodogram using parallel tempering MCMC, providing a robust statistical framework for exoplanet detection in radial velocity data.

Findings

Three planets with specific periods and eccentricities identified.

Bayesian model comparison favors a three-planet model over others.

Estimated planetary masses and semi-major axes provided.

Abstract

A Bayesian multi-planet Kepler periodogram has been developed for the analysis of precision radial velocity data (Gregory 2005b and 2007). The periodogram employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The HD 11964 data (Butler et al. 2006) has been re-analyzed using 1, 2, 3 and 4 planet models. Assuming that all the models are equally probable a priori, the three planet model is found to be >= 600 times more probable than the next most probable model which is a two planet model. The most probable model exhibits three periods of 38.02+0.06-0.05, 360+-4 and 1924+44-43 d, and eccentricities of 0.22+0.11-0.22, 0.63+0.34-0.17 and 0.05+0.03-0.05, respectively. Assuming the three signals (each one consistent with a Keplerian orbit) are caused by planets, the corresponding limits on planetary mass (M sin i) and semi-major axis are 0.090+0.15-0.14 M_J, 0.253+-0.009 au, 0.21+0.06-0.07 M_J, 1.13+-0.04 au, 0.77+-0.08 M_J, 3.46+-0.13 au, respectively. The small difference (1.3 sigma) between the 360 day period and one year suggests that it might be worth investigating the barycentric correction for the HD 11964 data.