Elevated soil lead: Statistical modeling and apportionment of contributions from lead-based paint and leaded gasoline

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new nonlinear regression method to analyze and apportion the contributions of lead-based paint and gasoline to elevated soil lead levels over time across large residential areas.

Contribution

It presents a novel nonlinear regression approach for modeling soil lead concentrations and distinguishing source contributions in large-scale residential studies.

Findings

The model successfully estimates source-specific contributions to soil lead levels.

Application to Minnesota and national data reveals relative impacts of paint and gasoline.

Insights support policy decisions on lead contamination sources.

Abstract

While it is widely accepted that lead-based paint and leaded gasoline are primary sources of elevated concentrations of lead in residential soils, conclusions regarding their relative contributions are mixed and generally study specific. We develop a novel nonlinear regression for soil lead concentrations over time. It is argued that this methodology provides useful insights into the partitioning of the average soil lead concentration by source and time over large residential areas. The methodology is used to investigate soil lead concentrations from the 1987 Minnesota Lead Study and the 1990 National Lead Survey. Potential litigation issues are discussed briefly.