An Initial Assessment of a Clear Air Turbulence Forecasting Product

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the Deformation-Vertical Shear Index (DVSI) in forecasting clear air turbulence, highlighting its positive reception but also its tendency to overestimate turbulence severity.

Contribution

It provides an initial assessment of the DVSI product's accuracy and usability in operational settings for predicting clear air turbulence.

Findings

DVSI is positively received by users.

DVSI tends to overestimate turbulence intensity.

The assessment highlights the need for further refinement.

Abstract

Clear air turbulence, also known as CAT, can cause damage to an aircrafts structure and, in severe cases, harm passengers. Though CAT has been thoroughly studied since the mid 1960s, scientists have not been able to create an accurate forecasting device. The product tested is known as the Deformation-Vertical Shear Index (DVSI), created by Knox, Ellrod, and Williams. The DVSI is currently used by several commercial carriers and military aircraft. The general feedback has been positive; however, results indicate that the product tends to overestimate CAT intensity.