Does the h-index have predictive power?

TL;DR

This study empirically evaluates the predictive power of the h-index for future scientific achievement, finding it superior to other bibliometric indicators like total citations and paper count.

Contribution

It provides an empirical comparison showing the h-index's better predictive ability over other metrics for future scientific success.

Findings

h-index outperforms other indicators in prediction accuracy

h-index is a more reliable predictor of future achievement

discussion of reasons behind h-index's effectiveness

Abstract

Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h-index compared to other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h-index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h-index.