Towards the Typology of Elections at Russia

TL;DR

This paper explores the typology of elections in Russia, contrasting older and young democracies, and introduces a theory-based classification of electoral campaigns using Lefevbre's reflexive control and Fibonacci distributions.

Contribution

It proposes a novel typology of electoral campaigns grounded in Lefevbre's reflexive control theory and mathematical vote distributions like Fibonacci numbers.

Findings

Fibonacci distribution indicates neutral electoral situations.

High ratings proximity correlates with electoral tension.

Leadership dominance signifies high mobilization.

Abstract

A distinction in reasons and motives for choosing a particular political leader establishes the key difference between older and young democracy. The former is based on electoral history, while the latter is based on feelings and personal attitude. Besides, a comparatively abundant number of political figures (persons or parties and associations) is specific for young democracies. The problem of a reference votes' distribution is analyzed. Lefevbre's theory of a reflexive control is supposed to make the basis for indifferent choice of political figures. This theory yields a golden section split of votes (or the series of Fibonacci numbers, for the case of multiple choice). A typology of political campaigns based on this theory is proposed. A proximity of ratings of competing persons means the highest electoral tension, a leadership of a person means a high level of mobilization; a neutral situation corresponds to Fibonacci numbers distribution of votes.