Some notes concerning the prediction of the amplitude of the two solar activity cycles

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new parameter G derived from sunspot group data to predict the amplitude of upcoming solar activity cycles, demonstrating its correlation with cycle strength and providing a forecast for cycle 24.

Contribution

The paper proposes a novel parameter G based on sunspot group data to predict solar cycle amplitudes, linking it with cycle strength and offering a specific forecast for cycle 24.

Findings

Parameter G correlates with the amplitude of the next solar cycle.

The method predicts cycle 24 with an amplitude of W24=135(+/-12).

Parameter G effectively characterizes minimal solar activity epochs.

Abstract

The parameter G, which is determined from the general number of sunspots groups Ng according to the daily observations G=Sum(1/Ng)^2, is offered. This parameter is calculated for the days when there is at least one sunspots group. It characterizes the minimum epoch solar activity. Parameter G mounts to the maximum during the epoch close to the minimal activity of sunspots. According too the data of the sequence of sunspots group in Greenwich-USAF/NOAA observatory format, observation data of Kislovodsk solar station and also daily Wolf number the changes of parameter G during 100 years were reconstructed. It is demonstrated in the paper that parameter G's amplitude in minimal solar activity n is linked with the sunspot cycle's amplitude Wn+1. The 24th activity cycle prediction is calculated, which makes W24=135(+/-12).