Cointegration of the Daily Electric Power System Load and the Weather

TL;DR

This paper presents a method to predict electric power system security by analyzing the cointegration between daily power load and weather conditions, highlighting the importance of thermodynamic factors.

Contribution

It introduces a novel thermal predictive analysis framework that combines cointegration tests with thermodynamic modeling for power system security prediction.

Findings

Successful cointegration of load and weather data

Effective thermodynamic tests for power system analysis

Enhanced prediction accuracy for daily power system security

Abstract

The paper makes a thermal predictive analysis of the electric power system security for a day ahead. This predictive analysis is set as a thermal computation of the expected security. This computation is obtained by cointegrating the daily electric power systen load and the weather, by finding the daily electric power system thermodynamics and by introducing tests for this thermodynamics. The predictive analysis made shows the electricity consumers' wisdom.