Prediction of future fifteen solar cycles

TL;DR

This study models past solar cycles as damped harmonic oscillators and uses autoregressive methods to predict the amplitude, period, and profiles of the next fifteen solar cycles, providing detailed forecasts of solar activity.

Contribution

It introduces a novel combination of physical modeling and autoregressive analysis to predict future solar cycle characteristics with high accuracy.

Findings

Predicted cycle 24 amplitude: 110 ($\\pm 11$) with a period of 9.34 years.

Cycle 25 expected to have a period of 12.49 years and amplitude 110 ($\\pm 11$).

Certain future cycles may experience very high or very low sunspot activity.

Abstract

In the previous study (Hiremath 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755-1996), long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an {\em autoregressive model}, we predict the amplitude and period of the future fifteen solar cycles. Predicted amplitude of the present solar cycle (23) matches very well with the observations. The period of the present cycle is found to be 11.73 years. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are : (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 ($\pm 11$), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 ($\pm$ 11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030-2042 AD), 27 (2042-2054 AD), 34 (2118-2127 AD), 37 (2152-2163 AD) and 38 (2163-2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089-2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 yrs for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 yrs for the cycle 35.