# Predicting the frequencies of diverse exo-planetary systems

## TL;DR

This paper presents a model linking the diversity of exoplanetary systems to the initial solid mass in circumstellar disks, accurately predicting their frequencies based on stellar metallicity and suggesting most stars can form Earth-like planets.

## Contribution

It introduces a model that connects stellar metallicity to the distribution of exoplanet types, explaining observed diversity and predicting high occurrence rates of Earth-like planets.

## Key findings

- The model accurately predicts the frequencies of various exoplanetary system classes.
- Different metallicity dependencies are explained for massive planets and cometary bodies.
- Approximately two-thirds of stars may host Earth-like planets.

## Abstract

Extrasolar planetary systems range from hot Jupiters out to icy comet belts more distant than Pluto. We explain this diversity in a model where the mass of solids in the primordial circumstellar disk dictates the outcome. The star retains measures of the initial heavy-element (metal) abundance that can be used to map solid masses onto outcomes, and the frequencies of all classes are correctly predicted. The differing dependences on metallicity for forming massive planets and low-mass cometary bodies are also explained. By extrapolation, around two-thirds of stars have enough solids to form Earth-like planets, and a high rate is supported by the first detections of low-mass exo-planets.