Real Options for Project Schedules (ROPS)

TL;DR

ROPS introduces a multi-layered simulation and optimization framework for project scheduling, integrating real options analysis, risk assessment, and adaptive algorithms to enhance decision-making in complex project environments.

Contribution

It presents a novel recursive sampling and optimization approach combining real options, risk analysis, and adaptive algorithms for project schedule management.

Findings

Effective schedule optimization through recursive sampling.

Enhanced risk analysis among multiple projects.

Integration of real options with adaptive algorithms.

Abstract

Real Options for Project Schedules (ROPS) has three recursive sampling/optimization shells. An outer Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) optimization shell optimizes parameters of strategic Plans containing multiple Projects containing ordered Tasks. A middle shell samples probability distributions of durations of Tasks. An inner shell samples probability distributions of costs of Tasks. PATHTREE is used to develop options on schedules.. Algorithms used for Trading in Risk Dimensions (TRD) are applied to develop a relative risk analysis among projects.